PMPA Business Trends Report
November, 2021
 

PMPA’s November Business Trends Report Sales Index came in unexpectedly high at 144, the fifth highest value for the year. November is typically a low month for sales. No shops reported scheduling less than forty hours, and the average hours of first shift scheduled was up half an hour at 44.5.

Our sentiment indicators and comparison of three to12 month moving average all indicated a strong three months ahead- with concerns about profitability, from difficulty getting supplies and inflation. We predicted a strong year back in April, and this month’s report suggests that we will exceed our expectations.

Business Trends Report – November 2021

Manufacturing Positivity

Durable Goods (New orders)

• The Census Bureau reports that New Orders Durable Goods rose 2.5% to a record $268.3 billion in November, with 0.8% growth excluding transportation equipment. Nonetheless, core capital goods orders—a proxy for capital spending in the U.S. economy—edged down 0.1% for the month. The longer-term trends remained very positive, with new durable goods orders jumping 14.7% year-over-year and nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft sales just shy of an all-time high.
  Link: https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/    (select the entry Advance Report Durable Goods)
   
• The U.S. economy grew  2.3% at the annual rate in the third quarter according to Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Manufacturing value-added output increased to $2.571 trillion, an all-time high, with record levels for both durable and nondurable goods. Manufacturing accounted for 11.1% of real GDP in the third quarter.
  Link: https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2021-12/gdp3q21_3rd.pdf)
   
• According to Chad Moutray at NAM, Real GDP should rebound in the fourth quarter, with 6.5% growth expected. For 2021, the forecast is for 5.6% growth. For 2022, the current estimate is for 4.1% growth.

“Final Cut for the Week” Part II
 

Thanks to Mike Mulligan of Laurel Steel/NUCOR for reaching out to say he was the one that submitted the chosen title for PMPA’s new weekly video series.

Final Cut for the Week will debut in January 2022 and will consist of a one to two minute video posted on LinkedIn on Fridays. The video will highlight PMPA Staff sharing quick information about what happened that week/crossed their desk in the precision machining industry. 

Watch for the first video next week!

5 – 4 – 3 – 2 – 1…

Join us in New Orleans, February 10-13 to reconnect, learn from and share knowledge with your peers and industry leaders.  Don’t miss out on what promises to be another valuable and worthwhile PMPA meeting!
 

End of the Year Freebies

• Who Comes Next: Leadership Succession Planning Made Easy 

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